Research

What does the Supreme Court's ruling mean for British parliamentary sovereignty?

25 January 2017
The Supreme Court ruled that Theresa May needs to ask Parliament for its consent to notify of the UK's intention to leave the EU.
What free movement means to Europe and why it matters to Britain

What free movement means to Europe and why it matters to Britain

19 January 2017
Britain and the EU-27 view migration very differently. That could complicate the Brexit and free trade negotiations.

What does Theresa May's speech tell us about how Britain will leave the EU?

17 January 2017
Theresa May has decided on a hard Brexit, putting sovereignty ahead of economics. She thinks the negotiations will take only two years, but they will take longer.

Europe's make-or-break country: What is wrong with Italy's economy?

Christian Odendahl, Ferdinando Giugliano
19 December 2016
Italy's economic problems are a threat to the eurozone and the EU as a whole. While the euro has not helped Italy, its problems are mainly homegrown.

Customs union membership is no way out of the Brexit trap

16 December 2016
Remaining in the customs union seems to be the least damaging way for Britain to ‘take back control’, but it is fraught with difficulties.

EU defence, Brexit and Trump: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

14 December 2016
Brexit and Trump compel European leaders to get serious about EU defence. But a lack of leadership and investment will make sustaining their efforts difficult.

Brexit and the economics of populism

Simon Tilford, John Springford
12 December 2016
Inequality, insecurity and a nativist backlash against immigration all help to explain the rise of populism. But globalisation does not prevent governments from addressing these problems.

Russia and China: Partners of choice and necessity?

08 December 2016
Russia and China are not natural allies. Western policy should reflect their different interests, not drive them together. China may be the easier one to accommodate.

Italy's referendum: Much ado about little

28 November 2016
Whatever the outcome, Italy's referendum is not the watershed moment in Italian politics many are making it out to be.

Does 'America First' mean EU defence at last?

22 November 2016
The election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States puts European security at risk.

A wake-up call for liberal Brexiters

Simon Tilford
22 November 2016
Trump's win has further weakened the liberal case for Brexit. Forging the closest EU ties possible is now even more essential for Britain.

Plugging Britain into EU security is not that simple

22 November 2016
Plugging the British into EU police and judicial co-operation will not be easy. And the UK will probably end up with less generous deals than the ones it has now.

Brussels prepares for a hard Brexit

21 November 2016
The EU institutions predict a painful divorce for the UK, because they see hard-line eurosceptics pushing Theresa May away from a soft Brexit.

Trump and Europe: The sun sets on the West

09 November 2016
Donald Trump's election will strain the transatlantic partnership. Populism in Europe and the US will threaten post-Cold War security and prosperity. Europe will need to work with Trump and to hedge against risks.
Not so special: why the US won't help Britain in the Brexit talks

Not so special: Why the US won't help Britain in the Brexit talks

25 October 2016
The US is watching two of its best friends get a divorce. It is not in its interest to take sides.
Sterling slump won't rescue the British economy

Sterling slump won't rescue the British economy

John Springford, Simon Tilford
21 October 2016
The 2008 devaluation did not prompt strong growth in British exports. The post-referendum fall in the pound is unlikely to do so either.
Why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit

Why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit

03 October 2016
The British government needs to understand why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit, and then work hard to secure their goodwill.

Brexit Britain: The poor man of Western Europe?

Simon Tilford
23 September 2016
Britain's economic record is mediocre and much of the country poor by Western European standards. The reasons for this are home-grown. And Brexit risks aggravating them.