Brexit and the economics of populism

Simon Tilford, John Springford
12 December 2016
Inequality, insecurity and a nativist backlash against immigration all help to explain the rise of populism. But globalisation does not prevent governments from addressing these problems.

Russia and China: Partners of choice and necessity?

08 December 2016
Russia and China are not natural allies. Western policy should reflect their different interests, not drive them together. China may be the easier one to accommodate.

Italy's referendum: Much ado about little

28 November 2016
Whatever the outcome, Italy's referendum is not the watershed moment in Italian politics many are making it out to be.

Does 'America First' mean EU defence at last?

22 November 2016
The election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States puts European security at risk.

A wake-up call for liberal Brexiters

Simon Tilford
22 November 2016
Trump's win has further weakened the liberal case for Brexit. Forging the closest EU ties possible is now even more essential for Britain.

Plugging Britain into EU security is not that simple

22 November 2016
Plugging the British into EU police and judicial co-operation will not be easy. And the UK will probably end up with less generous deals than the ones it has now.

Brussels prepares for a hard Brexit

21 November 2016
The EU institutions predict a painful divorce for the UK, because they see hard-line eurosceptics pushing Theresa May away from a soft Brexit.

Trump and Europe: The sun sets on the West

09 November 2016
Donald Trump's election will strain the transatlantic partnership. Populism in Europe and the US will threaten post-Cold War security and prosperity. Europe will need to work with Trump and to hedge against risks.
Not so special: why the US won't help Britain in the Brexit talks

Not so special: Why the US won't help Britain in the Brexit talks

25 October 2016
The US is watching two of its best friends get a divorce. It is not in its interest to take sides.
Sterling slump won't rescue the British economy

Sterling slump won't rescue the British economy

John Springford, Simon Tilford
21 October 2016
The 2008 devaluation did not prompt strong growth in British exports. The post-referendum fall in the pound is unlikely to do so either.
Why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit

Why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit

03 October 2016
The British government needs to understand why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit, and then work hard to secure their goodwill.

Brexit Britain: The poor man of Western Europe?

Simon Tilford
23 September 2016
Britain's economic record is mediocre and much of the country poor by Western European standards. The reasons for this are home-grown. And Brexit risks aggravating them.

Brexit will make Britain's mediocre economic record worse

Simon Tilford
19 September 2016
Britain is already an average economic performer by Western European standards. Brexit will further sap its economic dynamism and aggravate startling regional disparities

Europe and its South China Sea dilemma

Rem Korteweg
19 September 2016
Few issues in today's international politics are as thorny as the disputes in the South China Sea. A recent international ruling complicates matters further. Europe's response has been too weak.

Why a hard Brexit looks likely

19 September 2016
Recent data suggests that the Brexit vote will not cause a recession. This, coupled with the fact that British voters rejected two important principles of the EU, makes a single market exit all but certain.

Spain's groundhog day: Why Madrid needs a government

12 September 2016
Whether or not there is a third election, Spain needs a government. Madrid must be a credible partner as the EU confronts multiple crises, from migration to Brexit.

Security of supply in EU defence: Friends in need?

17 August 2016
In its drive to establish EU-wide security of supply for the defence market, Brussels faces protectionism, a flawed notion of European strategic autonomy and mistrust among governments.
Britain will struggle to make EU migrants 'go home'

Britain will struggle to make EU migrants ‘go home’

05 August 2016
The British government is likely to let all EU migrants who arrive before the date of Brexit stay in the country. Other options may be politically attractive, but are impractical, of dubious legality, or against British interests.