Research

Brussels prepares for a hard Brexit

21 November 2016
The EU institutions predict a painful divorce for the UK, because they see hard-line eurosceptics pushing Theresa May away from a soft Brexit.

Trump and Europe: The sun sets on the West

09 November 2016
Donald Trump's election will strain the transatlantic partnership. Populism in Europe and the US will threaten post-Cold War security and prosperity. Europe will need to work with Trump and to hedge against risks.
Not so special: why the US won't help Britain in the Brexit talks

Not so special: Why the US won't help Britain in the Brexit talks

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, Rem Korteweg
25 October 2016
The US is watching two of its best friends get a divorce. It is not in its interest to take sides.
Sterling slump won't rescue the British economy

Sterling slump won't rescue the British economy

21 October 2016
The 2008 devaluation did not prompt strong growth in British exports. The post-referendum fall in the pound is unlikely to do so either.
Why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit

Why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit

03 October 2016
The British government needs to understand why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit, and then work hard to secure their goodwill.

Brexit Britain: The poor man of Western Europe?

23 September 2016
Britain's economic record is mediocre and much of the country poor by Western European standards. The reasons for this are home-grown. And Brexit risks aggravating them.

Brexit will make Britain's mediocre economic record worse

19 September 2016
Britain is already an average economic performer by Western European standards. Brexit will further sap its economic dynamism and aggravate startling regional disparities

Europe and its South China Sea dilemma

Rem Korteweg
19 September 2016
Few issues in today's international politics are as thorny as the disputes in the South China Sea. A recent international ruling complicates matters further. Europe's response has been too weak.

Why a hard Brexit looks likely

19 September 2016
Recent data suggests that the Brexit vote will not cause a recession. This, coupled with the fact that British voters rejected two important principles of the EU, makes a single market exit all but certain.

Spain's groundhog day: Why Madrid needs a government

12 September 2016
Whether or not there is a third election, Spain needs a government. Madrid must be a credible partner as the EU confronts multiple crises, from migration to Brexit.

Security of supply in EU defence: Friends in need?

17 August 2016
In its drive to establish EU-wide security of supply for the defence market, Brussels faces protectionism, a flawed notion of European strategic autonomy and mistrust among governments.
Britain will struggle to make EU migrants 'go home'

Britain will struggle to make EU migrants ‘go home’

05 August 2016
The British government is likely to let all EU migrants who arrive before the date of Brexit stay in the country. Other options may be politically attractive, but are impractical, of dubious legality, or against British interests.
Can the EU-Turkey migration deal survive Erdoğan's purges?

Can the EU-Turkey migration deal survive Erdoğan’s purges?

Rem Korteweg
02 August 2016
Erdoğan’s actions threaten to derail the migration deal. The EU should postpone visa liberalisation and show it is willing to be tough.
Theresa May and her six-pack of difficult deals

Theresa May and her six-pack of difficult deals

28 July 2016
Theresa May’s ministers need to negotiate not just one Brexit deal, but six. They must charm not only EU governments, but also every WTO member.

Britain's limited options

18 July 2016
Britain is one of the more populous countries in Europe, is highly integrated with the European economy, and is 21 miles from France. These facts limit its room for manoeuvre in the Brexit negotiations.
Brexit and foreign policy: Divorce?

Brexit and foreign policy: Divorce?

18 July 2016
The British government must work hard to minimise the damage to its international influence from Brexit. First step: more investment in relations with European partners.

How Brexit is changing the EU

15 July 2016
By boosting Europe's populists, Brexit is making EU governments increasingly hostile to the 'federalism' of the Brussels institutions. It is also making Germany even more preponderant.
Long day’s journey into economic night

Long day’s journey into economic night

11 July 2016
Economic developments in Britain since the referendum suggest that a recession is coming. And the politics of the negotiation with the EU suggest the country will suffer a prolonged period of weak economic growth.