Research

How Brexit is changing the EU

15 July 2016
By boosting Europe's populists, Brexit is making EU governments increasingly hostile to the 'federalism' of the Brussels institutions. It is also making Germany even more preponderant.
Long day’s journey into economic night

Long day’s journey into economic night

11 July 2016
Economic developments in Britain since the referendum suggest that a recession is coming. And the politics of the negotiation with the EU suggest the country will suffer a prolonged period of weak economic growth.
NATO defence spending: Money can't buy you solidarity

NATO defence spending: Money can't buy you solidarity

06 July 2016
NATO allies have halted the trend of decreasing defence budgets. At the Warsaw Summit, they should work to translate spending levels into a stronger military posture for the alliance.
NATO, the EU and Brexit: Joining forces?

NATO, the EU and Brexit: Joining forces?

05 July 2016
NATO and the EU must work together to manage crises in Europe’s neighbourhood. The UK’s referendum vote has given them one more problem to solve.
Dear EU leaders, please handle Britain with care

Dear EU leaders, please handle Britain with care

Simon Tilford
29 June 2016
Britain is in serious trouble. It does not need further concessions from you, but the dust needs to settle before it can take decisions about its future.
How Leave outgunned Remain: The battle of the 'five Ms'

How Leave outgunned Remain: The battle of the 'five Ms'

25 June 2016
Remain suffered from unconvincing messengers, too narrow a message, difficulties over migration, a savage media and a ruthless Leave campaign machine.
The impact of Brexit on the EU

The impact of Brexit on the EU

24 June 2016
The EU will not dissolve after Brexit, but it will change incrementally. The UK will probably end up with a free trade agreement like Canada’s.
There is legitimate anger at the EU, and then there is populism and nationalism

There is legitimate anger at the EU, and then there is populism and nationalism

Simon Tilford
22 June 2016
Some frustration with the EU is justified, but much of it – particularly in the UK and across Central and Eastern Europe – reflects populism and nationalism.
Europe's offer to a post-Brexit Britain

Europe's offer to a post-Brexit Britain

22 June 2016
If Britain votes to leave, it will face three options for exiting the EU. It will also have to embark on two sets of negotiations.
Britain, the EU and security: Only one thing worse than fighting with allies

Britain, the EU and security: Only one thing worse than fighting with allies

21 June 2016
The threats to Britain are diverse, and shared with Europe. Responses must be equally flexible and multinational. The age of splendid isolation is not coming back.
Why young people are right to fear Brexit

Why young people are right to fear Brexit

17 June 2016
Even Brexiters admit that there will be short-term economic costs to leaving the EU. Young people would disproportionately bear the brunt, and the effects would be long-lasting.
Storm in a Turkish tea cup

Storm in a Turkish tea cup

Rem Korteweg
16 June 2016
Despite what Brexiters say, Turkey will not join the European Union anytime soon.
Brexiting yourself in the foot: Why Britain's eurosceptic regions have most to lose from EU withdrawal

Brexiting yourself in the foot: Why Britain's eurosceptic regions have most to lose from EU withdrawal

John Springford, Philip McCann, Bart Los and Mark Thissen
13 June 2016
New data shows that the most eurosceptic regions of the UK are the most economically integrated with the EU.
Europe after Bremain: A strong team?

Europe after Bremain: A strong team?

10 June 2016
If Britain votes to Remain, it should not revert to old habits of obstruction. In almost every field, it can serve its own interests best by making a positive contribution.

Can Britain join Norway in the EEA?

09 June 2016
Pro-EU MPs might try to force the UK to accept membership of the EEA – the ‘Norway option’ – if Britain votes to leave the EU. Charles Grant and John Springford debate whether this is likely.
The role of national parliaments in the EU: Building or stumbling blocks

The role of national parliaments in the EU: Building or stumbling blocks?

06 June 2016
If Britain remains in the EU it should lead the discussion about a more constructive role for national parliaments in reducing democratic deficit in the EU.

Is the EU to blame for the crisis in Ukraine?

01 June 2016
Brexiters accuse the EU of blundering into Ukraine and provoking conflict with Russia. But Brussels’ attempt to boost trade with Ukraine cannot justify Russia’s military intervention.
Brexit would shake the four pillars of British foreign policy

Brexit would shake the four pillars of British foreign policy

John Kerr
31 May 2016
The four pillars of the UK’s foreign policy would be rocked by a Brexit, and if one pillar falls, all are weakened.

Why Britain voted to leave (if it does...)

26 May 2016
Remain could lose on June 23rd, because of the EU's many problems, the Outers' focus on migration and the difficulty of mobilising younger voters.