Research
EU defence, Brexit and Trump: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
14 December 2016
Brexit and Trump compel European leaders to get serious about EU defence. But a lack of leadership and investment will make sustaining their efforts difficult.
Brexit and the economics of populism
12 December 2016
Inequality, insecurity and a nativist backlash against immigration all help to explain the rise of populism. But globalisation does not prevent governments from addressing these problems.
Russia and China: Partners of choice and necessity?
08 December 2016
Russia and China are not natural allies. Western policy should reflect their different interests, not drive them together. China may be the easier one to accommodate.
Has the ECB started to tighten the screws?
08 December 2016
Given the continued weakness of inflation, the ECB was always going to extend its bond purchasing programme (‘quantitative easing’ or QE) beyond its previously scheduled end in March 2017.
Italy's referendum: Much ado about little
28 November 2016
Whatever the outcome, Italy's referendum is not the watershed moment in Italian politics many are making it out to be.
Autumn Statement 2016: How will Brexit affect the budget?
23 November 2016
‘Brexit’ will be added to the Collins dictionary this year, and one Twitter wag suggested that the dictionary should tweak Theresa May by making the following entry: ‘Brexit (n): Brexit’.
Does 'America First' mean EU defence at last?
22 November 2016
The election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States puts European security at risk.
A wake-up call for liberal Brexiters
22 November 2016
Trump's win has further weakened the liberal case for Brexit. Forging the closest EU ties possible is now even more essential for Britain.
Plugging Britain into EU security is not that simple
22 November 2016
Plugging the British into EU police and judicial co-operation will not be easy. And the UK will probably end up with less generous deals than the ones it has now.
Bulletin Issue 111 - December 2016/January 2017
22 November 2016
- Does 'America First' mean EU defence at last?, Ian Bond, Sophia Besch
- A wake-up call for liberal Brexiters, Simon Tilford
- Plugging Britain into EU security is not that simple, Camino Mortera-Martinez
Brussels prepares for a hard Brexit
21 November 2016
The EU institutions predict a painful divorce for the UK, because they see hard-line eurosceptics pushing Theresa May away from a soft Brexit.
Trump and Europe: The sun sets on the West
09 November 2016
Donald Trump's election will strain the transatlantic partnership. Populism in Europe and the US will threaten post-Cold War security and prosperity. Europe will need to work with Trump and to hedge against risks.
Not so special: Why the US won't help Britain in the Brexit talks
25 October 2016
The US is watching two of its best friends get a divorce. It is not in its interest to take sides.
Sterling slump won't rescue the British economy
21 October 2016
The 2008 devaluation did not prompt strong growth in British exports. The post-referendum fall in the pound is unlikely to do so either.
Why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit
03 October 2016
The British government needs to understand why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit, and then work hard to secure their goodwill.
Brexit Britain: The poor man of Western Europe?
23 September 2016
Britain's economic record is mediocre and much of the country poor by Western European standards. The reasons for this are home-grown. And Brexit risks aggravating them.
Bulletin Issue 110 - October/November 2016
19 September 2016
- Why a hard Brexit looks likely, John Springford
- Brexit will make Britain's mediocre economic record worse, Simon Tilford
- Europe and its South China Sea dilemma, Rem Korteweg
Brexit will make Britain's mediocre economic record worse
19 September 2016
Britain is already an average economic performer by Western European standards. Brexit will further sap its economic dynamism and aggravate startling regional disparities
Europe and its South China Sea dilemma
19 September 2016
Few issues in today's international politics are as thorny as the disputes in the South China Sea. A recent international ruling complicates matters further. Europe's response has been too weak.
Why a hard Brexit looks likely
19 September 2016
Recent data suggests that the Brexit vote will not cause a recession. This, coupled with the fact that British voters rejected two important principles of the EU, makes a single market exit all but certain.