Centre for European Reform

"Questa volta l'Europa potrebbe non essere in grado di fare affidamento sull'approccio caotico di Trump alla governance, il che ha significato che nel suo primo mandato molti annunci politici non hanno mai portato ad azioni", ha sottolineato l'esperto di politica estera USA Ian Bond, del Centre for European Reform.

Writing for the Centre for European Reform think-tank, Aslak Berg and Zach Meyers suggest that the EU might find Harris difficult to deal with on economic issues:. . . while Harris would likely be more interested than Trump in transatlantic dialogue, both candidates have economic priorities which will put Europe in an awkward position — including getting tougher on China, and boosting US jobs in sectors sensitive to Europe, such as vehicle production.

Luigi Scazzieri, transatlantic relations expert at the Centre for European Reform said: "Trump has also made no secret of his dislike for NATO and belief that Europeans are freeriding on the US for security" and a Trump victory would divide the EU and put it under pressure.On the other hand, a Kamala Harris victory would likely mean continuity with current Biden administration policies, according to Scazzieri.

“There's no doubt that Trump will do something to Germany because he's been very clear that he's targeting Germany's surplus. So that definitely will be a rough ride,” Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform (CER), told Euractiv.However, Tordoir noted that Trump’s re-election could also incentivise Beijing to attempt to seek closer ties with Brussels.