Press

Post-Brexit Guide: What's been the impact — and how did it happen?

29 December 2022
Euronews
A report by the Centre for European Reform in December 2022 is the latest to illustrate how Brexit has hit the UK's GDP, investment and trade. 

UK traders on Brexit: ‘It’s increased paperwork, stress, everything’

27 December 2022
The Guardian
But John Springford, of the Centre for European Reform, says it’s important to track the UK’s performance against other, similar economies – an approach he calls the “doppelganger method”.“If you compare UK trade after leaving the single market to UK trade before, then you’re not really comparing apples with apples, because you need to compare with other countries. There’s been a big global goods trade boom since the end of the pandemic,” he says.

Brexit: The EU may have moved on, but the UK remains trapped in a doom cycle

27 December 2022
iNews
“Ukraine has opened the EU’s eyes to the fact that there are a lot of big boys in the world and they have to play at the same level,” says Camino Mortera-Martinez, head of the Brussels office at the Centre for European Reform. “It has given the EU confidence – and brought it together more than anything else. And it is the first time that the EU has found a crisis that fits it well.”

Crise au Royaume-Uni : comment le Brexit a détérioré l’économie britannique

26 December 2022
Le Parisien
Dans un article publié le 21 décembre, le Centre for European Reform (CER) estimait qu’au 2e trimestre 2022, le PIB britannique était inférieur de 5,5 % à ce qu’il aurait été si le pays était resté dans l’UE.

Tony’s picks of the week

24 December 2022
Financial Times
The UK’s gross domestic product, investment and foreign goods trade have all taken a substantial hit as a result of Brexit, John Springford calculates in an analysis for the Centre for European Reform think-tank.

Brexit snarling again amid more grim economic news

23 December 2022
The Independent
John Springford at the Centre for European Reform, who has been tracking its increasingly dire impact on the UK economy, released his latest update this week.Based on the performance of similar countries before and after the event, he calculated that the UK’s economy was 5.5 per cent smaller in the second quarter of the year than it otherwise would have been. In real money, economic output was £33bn lower and tax revenues were £12bn lower.

Brexit chickens come home to roost

23 December 2022
The Herald Scotland
A particularly stark report on the cost of Brexit was published on Wednesday by the Centre for European Reform (CER) think-tank. CER deputy director John Springford’s latest report on the impact of leaving the EU on the UK economy estimates that Brexit had, by the second quarter of 2022, reduced the country’s gross domestic product by 5.5 per cent. That is a very big amount indeed.

Comienza una nueva era de política exterior finlandesa

23 December 2022
ES Global
La invasión rusa de Ucrania ha provocado unos cambios sin precedentes en la política exterior finlandesa. La solicitud de ingreso en la OTAN no debe ser más que el principio.

Spain's constitutional crisis raises concerns over polarization

22 December 2022
Voice of America
Camino Mortera, of the Centre for European Reform, a research institution, said the Spanish government’s attempts to interfere in the composition of the judiciary had worrying overtones of events in Poland and Hungary.Warsaw and Budapest have muzzled the independent judiciary in moves which have concerned the European Commission and civil rights groups.“Given what is happening with Poland and Hungary, just a mere suspicion that a government is trying to intervene in any way in the composition of a court through emergency legislation raises suspicions,” she told VOA.

Rocks and hard places

22 December 2022
Politico London Playbook
With organizations like the Centre for European Reform painting stark pictures about the GDP hit from Brexit (5.5 percent, according to John Springford) the red flashing lights don’t appear on the verge of dimming. And that means the debate about whether Brexit was such a good idea will continue to rage, while public sentiment gurgles beneath the surface.

Three-quarters of UK firms say Brexit deal has not boosted business

22 December 2022
The Guardian
The BCC’s call for action from the government came as research from the Centre for European Reform (CER) thinktank claimed Brexit had shaved 5.5% off GDP and cost £40bn in tax revenues.In a report, the CER’s John Springford compares Britain’s performance since Brexit with a basket of similar economies.

Firms frustrated by post-Brexit trade red tape

22 December 2022
BBC News
John Springfield, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, said that in the second quarter of 2022, Brexit meant the economy was £33bn smaller than it would have been had the UK voted to remain.He added that Brexit's effect in stifling the economy meant the government had to raise taxes to find an extra £40bn to fund public services.

The UK is now at a permanent disadvantage to competitors in the single market

22 December 2022
Financial Times
This week’s chart comes from the latest assessment of the effects of Brexit (up until June 2022) by John Springford at the Centre for European Reform think-tank. The headline number is a 5.5 per cent (£33bn) negative hit to GDP in the second quarter of 2022, when compared with remaining in the EU single market.

La factura del Brexit: la economía de RU se ha reducido un 5,5% desde su salida de la UE

22 December 2022
EL Confidencial
La economía del Reino Unido era en junio de este año un 5,5% menor de lo que habría sido si el país continuara integrado en la Unión Europea (UE), una ralentización que ha forzado a subir impuestos, según un informe divulgado por el laboratorio de ideas británico Centre for European Reform (CER).

If trade is a Cinderella indicator, the UK has stopped coming to the ball

21 December 2022
The Times
The Centre for European Reform’s latest assessment, to be published shortly, which compares the UK’s performance with a “doppelganger” UK of similar countries but unaffected by Brexit, is expected to report significant negative effects on both exports and business investment.

Le Brexit aurait déjà coûté 37 milliards d’euros au PIB britannique

21 December 2022
Liberation
D’après une estimation du Centre for European Reform, le Royaume-Uni aurait aujourd’hui un PIB 5,5 % supérieur à celui actuel si le pays n’avait pas quitté l’Union européenne.

Britain's GDP hammered by Brexit, analysts find

21 December 2022
The National
Brexit has cost Britain 5.5 per cent of its national GDP, estimates published on Wednesday indicated.Since the country left the EU, investment was down 11 per cent and goods trade 7 per cent lower, but services trade, for the first time, showed no change, analysis from the Centre for European Reform found.

The Tories and Labour are saying one thing on Brexit and doing another

21 December 2022
The Independent
So now we know. Brexit is proving even worse for the UK economy than the official forecast of a 4 per cent hit to GDP over 15 years. It’s already reached 5.5 per cent, according to a study by the Centre for European Reform (CER) think-tank....The CER calculates that Brexit is costing the government £40bn a year in lost revenue, which on ministers’ own figures would allow them to give all public sector workers an inflation-linked pay rise instead of a real-terms cut and still have £12bn to spare. The think tank also cites a very clear Brexit effect on business investment, which hits productivity and therefore the politicians’ holy grail of growth.

This is how much experts think Brexit has cost the UK government so far

21 December 2022
Huffpost
John Springford, deputy director for the Centre for European Reform (CER) has used a modelling system from 2018 to look at the difference between the current UK economy outside of the EU compares to a UK which may have stayed in the bloc.He believes the economy is now 5.5% smaller than it would have been if the UK had remained part of the EU.This means the UK’s economic output was £33 billion less than if we had stayed in the EU between April and June alone.

Brexit has left the UK economy 5.5% smaller, researcher says

21 December 2022
Bloomberg
The Centre for European Reform said that slower growth is also weighing on the Treasury’s revenue and that the tax increases announced in the autumn fiscal statement wouldn’t be necessary if the UK were still in the European Union’s common market.