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“No amount of de-risking can make up for a sudden policy change that makes it harder for Europeans to sell into America,” says Ian Bond, deputy director at the Centre for European Reform think-tank. “In a second term, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that he could decide some other material is a risk to American security.”

As Charles Grant from the Centre for European Reform points out, von der Leyen faces far tougher, existential challenges than the French Socialist did. The current Commission president “has a much tougher set of problems to deal with,” he told Playbook. “Delors had to cope with Bosnia and the ERM [Exchange Rate Mechanism] crisis, while VDL has had to deal with even bigger headaches like COVID, Ukraine, illegal immigration and the rise of the far right/Orbán.

“Es muy difícil predecir (el resultado de) las elecciones europeas con tanta antelación. No se rigen para nada por los mismos criterios que las elecciones nacionales. En muchos Estados miembros son elecciones de castigo. Y para ver a quien se va a castigar, cuándo y cómo tienes que estar más cerca”, explica Camino Mortera-Martinez.

»Den træning, vi tilbyder ukrainerne, lever slet ikke op vores egne standarder. Vi træner dem i fem-seks måneder, og i nogle tilfælde væsentligt kortere tid. Hvis det var vores egne soldater, ville vi træne dem i mindst et år, før vi sendte dem ud i den type krig, der bliver udkæmpet lige nu,« siger Ian Bond.

By June, Ukraine was able to recapture some territory but failed to break through the Russian lines. The Western weapon supplies were too little, too late, says analyst Ian Bond."The delays in supplying this equipment meant that the Russians had a long time to build up their minefields and their fixed fortifications, so they're actually in a much stronger position than they were. And we've been asking the Ukrainians to launch their counteroffensive when they have very little air capability," Bond told VOA, adding that Ukraine had made remarkable progress in countering Russia's navy.

"Delors hat Geschichte geschrieben", glaubt Charles Grant, damals Korrespondent des Economist und heute Direktor des britischen Think-Tanks Centre for European Reform, "er mobilisierte die proeuropäischen Kräfte - und lenkte sie geschickt in Richtung seiner Ziele."