Ian Bond
Ian Bond
Deputy director
Areas of expertise
Russia and the former Soviet Union, European foreign policy, Europe/Asia relations, US foreign policy.
Twitter
Bluesky
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Trump is back, worse than last time. Is Europe ready?
11 February 2025
Donald Trump’s America is an unreliable ally. Individual European states will be tempted to hope Trump attacks someone else. They must work together instead, to reduce their dependency on America.
Can Europe navigate Trump 2?
08 November 2024
Donald Trump will be the next US president. Europe’s leaders need to accept this reality and protect European interests.
Georgia and Moldova: Putin's dominoes?
17 October 2024
Georgia and Moldova are EU candidate countries facing elections this month. Both risk coming under increased Russian influence, but for very different reasons. The EU should invest in keeping them in its camp.
What a Harris presidency would mean for Europe
30 September 2024
A Harris presidency would signal continuity for transatlantic relations. But Europeans should not think they can turn back the clock to the pre-Trump era.
All at sea? UK-German co-operation in the Nordic-Baltic region
26 September 2024
Whatever happens in Ukraine, Russia will remain a threat to EU and NATO interests in the Nordic-Baltic region. The UK and Germany should try to co-operate more closely there.
EU-UK relations: Towards a post-election agenda
01 July 2024
Britain’s next government needs a coherent strategy towards the EU, ranging from trade and regulation to energy, foreign policy and defence.
Working hand in hand? EU-UK co-operation in supporting Ukraine
20 May 2024
The EU and the UK have worked together closely to support Ukraine. Now they need to sustain support and strengthen their co-operation to be ready for possible US disengagement.
Does it matter if Ukraine loses?
24 April 2024
Ukraine is retreating and Russia is advancing, militarily and politically. Western leaders seem to underestimate both the impact of Ukraine’s defeat and the West’s ability to prevent it.
And the winner is… Vladimir Putin (for now)
21 March 2024
Putin’s ‘election victory’ does not mean that he will remain in power forever. Western leaders should plan for continued confrontation, but (unlike Putin) they should not fear change in Russia.
Two years (and ten years) of war in Europe: Hard times for Ukraine
07 March 2024
After a difficult year for Ukraine, Putin may be encouraged to think he can win the war. But this is a fight neither Ukraine nor Europe can afford to lose.
Europe and the US election: Hope for the best, prepare for the worst
22 January 2024
There is a good chance that Donald Trump will return to the US presidency in 2025. That would endanger European interests, but Europe is not investing in mitigating the risks.
Ukraine fatigue: Bad for Kyiv, bad for the West
21 November 2023
Some Western leaders are expressing ‘Ukraine fatigue’ – a luxury Ukrainians do not have. But the cost to Europe of Ukraine failing would be higher than that of helping it to win.
Building UK-EU bridges: Convergent China policies?
10 July 2023
The EU and the UK have almost identical objectives vis-à-vis China, and are pursuing very similar policies. After Brexit, can they still work together closely?
Why Russia must pay for the damage it has done to Ukraine – and how to ensure it does
19 June 2023
Western taxpayers should not pay all the cost of reconstructing Ukraine, when there are Russian assets that could be used.
Ukraine's progress towards NATO membership: Going from Bucharest to Vilnius without moving?
08 June 2023
At its upcoming Vilnius summit, NATO is likely to offer Ukraine a closer relationship than before, but less than full membership.
Note to the West: Help Georgia and Moldova as well as Ukraine
21 April 2023
Russian influence in Georgia and Moldova is a threat to Western interests. While Putin is tied up in Ukraine, the West should weaken his position in the other two states.
The best national security that (no) money can buy?
03 April 2023
The UK’s ‘Integrated Review refresh’ is more sober than its 2021 precursor. But the gap between the challenges the UK faces and the resources available to meet them has grown.
A year of war in Europe: The balance sheet
22 February 2023
Since Russia attacked Ukraine, the CER has tracked the war’s effect on the protagonists, the EU, NATO and other powers. What conclusions can be drawn from the past year?
Germany, Russia and Ukraine: From 'Turning Point' to missing the point
27 January 2023
Germany’s slowness in authorising the supply of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine was bad news for Ukraine, European security and Germany itself. But other Western leaders should not be too smug.
China and Russia: Are there limits to 'no limits' friendship?
15 December 2022
China has mostly offered Russia rhetorical support in its war against Ukraine. Beijing seems uncomfortable with Putin’s nuclear sabre-rattling. But China is unlikely to allow Russia to be decisively defeated.
Now is not the time for Ukraine to negotiate
01 December 2022
Various Western figures are encouraging Ukraine to begin peace negotiations with Russia. But a ceasefire now would leave Ukraine vulnerable to a renewed Russian attack. Ukraine needs weapons, not wavering.
A world of troubles for Liz Truss
29 September 2022
The new prime minister faces huge foreign policy challenges. She needs to choose her friends, her enemies and her policies carefully.
The EU, NATO and European security in a time of war
05 August 2022
Russia is not the only threat to European security. NATO remains essential for deterrence and defence, but the EU must also play a bigger security role.
First help Ukraine win the war. Then help it win the peace
28 July 2022
Even a partial Russian victory in Ukraine would damage Western interests. Ukraine needs much more help to expel Russian forces, and to rebuild its infrastructure, economy and institutions afterwards.
Rebooting Europe’s China Strategy
11 May 2022
How should Europe respond to the implications of its entanglement with China? The country is an inescapable partner, yet it poses a challenge to the sustainability of our economies, our principles for international action, and ultimately our security.
What would President Le Pen mean for Europe? A manifesto for trouble
11 April 2022
Marine Le Pen has dropped her referendum on the euro, but her ‘France first’ agenda would cripple the EU from the inside and weaken the transatlantic alliance.
Europe must stop paying for Russia's war
30 March 2022
Putin wants Europe to pay for gas in roubles, forcing it to deal with Russia’s central bank. Europe should respond by ending Russian hydrocarbon imports sooner than planned.
Russia's war on Ukraine: There is worse to come (for the West as well)
17 March 2022
The EU has reacted robustly to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. But it must now mitigate the economic, social and political consequences, which will hit ordinary citizens and challenge Western cohesion.
Russia-Ukraine: The West needs a sanctions strategy
10 March 2022
After the initial flurry of sanctions on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine, Western leaders now need to take a more strategic approach.
Stronger sanctions on Russia: Essential, but not a strategy
25 February 2022
The West is rightly responding to Putin’s all-out attack on Ukraine’s territorial integrity with sanctions. But they need to be part of a wider strategy to ensure that he cannot win.
Britain needs a new Russia policy
24 January 2022
The British government, once naively optimistic about Russia, has become more hard-nosed in its analysis. It should now do more to pursue a coherent Russia strategy with like-minded countries.
Why the West should deter a Russian attack on Ukraine
30 November 2021
Russian forces are massing near Ukraine’s border again. Putin hopes to win concessions from Kyiv without fighting, but more concessions will not bring peace. The West should focus on deterring Russia.
Britain and France should stand together
29 November 2021
UK-French relations are fractious across the board. The two countries must not lose sight of their common international security interests. As Europe’s pre-eminent military powers, they need each other.
Bridging the Channel: The UK's nuclear deterrent and its role in European security
18 November 2021
The UK’s nuclear deterrent is intended to defend its NATO allies as well as itself. The UK must do a better job of persuading allies that its commitment to them is real.
Lukashenka is the problem, not the migrants
12 November 2021
The crisis on the Belarusian-Polish border is artificially manufactured. Europe needs to focus on the cause of the problem – Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s desire to strike back at the EU.
Why have Europe's energy prices spiked and what can the EU do about them?
28 October 2021
Europeans’ skyrocketing energy bills are not primarily Russia’s fault, though it is capitalising on Europe’s vulnerability.
Transatlantic relations after Afghanistan and AUKUS
30 September 2021
America’s relations with its European allies have survived worse crises than the row over whose submarines Australia will buy, or even the Afghanistan debacle. The US should not be complacent, however.
You can leave Afghanistan, but will Afghanistan leave you?
19 August 2021
The Taliban’s victory is a disaster for Western policy, but it is not the end of the story. The West must now work hard to mitigate the fallout.
The Moscow coup(s) of 1991: Who won and why does it still matter?
17 August 2021
Thirty years after the coup that triggered the Soviet Union’s collapse, Russia is ruled by the heirs of the plotters, not their democratic opponents. Why?
EU foreign, security and defence policy co-operation with neighbours: Mapping diversity
10 May 2021
The EU and its neighbours co-operate in foreign policy in different ways. It would benefit by working more closely with its partners.
Can the UK be secure if Europe is not? The UK's (un)integrated review
28 April 2021
Having identified the Euro-Atlantic area as its home region and Russia as the most acute threat there, the British government must not ignore the EU’s role as a security partner.
Russia, Ukraine and the West: How do you solve a problem like Vladimir?
13 April 2021
Vladimir Putin is threatening Ukraine again. The West so far lacks a unified and effective way of dealing with this and other challenges from Russia.
Transatlantic relations for the Biden era and beyond
01 February 2021
Most European leaders responded to Joe Biden’s election victory on November 3rd with undisguised enthusiasm.
Can Biden mend Trump's foreign policy mess?
30 November 2020
Donald Trump’s foreign policy failures far outweigh his successes. America’s allies may have exaggerated expectations of what Joe Biden can do to put things back on an even keel.
Post-Brexit foreign, security and defence co-operation: We don't want to talk about it
26 November 2020
The UK is wrong to reject an institutional foreign policy relationship with the EU, but the EU should improve its ineffective external security co-operation with third countries, including the UK.
President Biden: Don't expect miracles, Europe
13 November 2020
Transatlantic relations will improve under Biden, but Europe will not be his number one priority. Europeans must strengthen their capacity to protect their own interests.
Americans choose their president: Europe must live with the consequences
02 November 2020
The US election could spell the end of the transatlantic partnership or give it a new lease of life. But even if Biden prevails, Europeans should not use his victory as an excuse to hit the snooze button.
CER submission to the British government's integratered view of security, defence, development and foreign policy
21 September 2020
The CER's submission to the British government's security, defence, development and foreign policy review argues that to tackle diverse threats successfully, the UK must build strong partnerships with other democracies.
Europe, the US and China: A love-hate triangle?
21 September 2020
The EU risks being caught between an increasingly hostile US and China. It must manage relations with both in order to protect the rules-based global order.
Trump sounds the retreat: Can European defence advance?
26 June 2020
Donald Trump may not succeed in withdrawing US troops from Germany this year, but Europeans cannot assume that the Americans will stay forever.
Hand-wringing for Hong Kong: What else can the EU do?
11 June 2020
The EU should not be indifferent to what is happening in Hong Kong. China’s willingness to violate Hong Kong’s autonomy is part of a pattern of increasingly confrontational behaviour.
Putin hits a bad patch
07 May 2020
Putin may have thought 2020 was going to be an excellent year for him. Instead, he has to deal with the oil price crash and COVID-19.
COVID-19: Can the EU avoid an epidemic of authoritarianism?
09 April 2020
Most EU governments have restricted fundamental rights in order to tackle COVID-19. The EU should check that measures are justifiable, proportionate and respect its norms, which is not the case in Hungary.
The COVID-19 pandemic: The EU must think and act globally
27 March 2020
European leaders are naturally focusing on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on their own continent. But a global crisis demands more than local solutions; the EU should do more beyond its borders.
Will courting Putin always end in tears?
03 March 2020
Putin is good at persuading Western leaders that bad relations with Russia are their fault. They should defend their interests better, but also keep talking to Russia.
UK foreign and security policy after Brexit
27 January 2020
Since the 19th century, Britain has seen alliances as temporary and interests as permanent. But Brexit will dissolve a partnership, while simultaneously harming the UK’s domestic and external security interests.
Democracy and the rule of law: Failing partnership?
20 January 2020
Lack of respect for the rule of law is not just a Central European problem. EU institutions must make defending the rule of law in all member-states a top priority.
NATO: Brain dead, or just resting?
02 December 2019
NATO leaders will meet in London on December 3rd and 4th against a background of internal disagreements. But reports of the alliance's death are exaggerated.
Can Josep Borrell get EU foreign policy off the ground?
30 September 2019
The EU’s new foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, may struggle to co-ordinate the Union’s external activities in the face of rival European commissioners and unruly member-states.
Will the 'Servant of the People' be the master of Ukraine?
31 July 2019
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, now has a parliamentary majority behind him. The West can help to ensure he uses it to enact much-needed reforms.
Huawei, my way or the highway: Which way should the EU turn?
18 June 2019
The EU and US both worry about China’s industrial espionage and unfair competition. But the US risks creating needless confrontation if it coerces Europeans into banning Huawei from 5G networks.
Trump's state visit to a country in a state
31 May 2019
Donald Trump may be an unwelcome visitor to London, but the special relationship’s travails should not obscure the transatlantic partnership’s enduring importance to the US, the UK and Europe.
NATO at 70: Twilight years or a new dawn?
03 April 2019
As NATO celebrates its 70th anniversary, the most serious threats to its survival are as much internal as external.
Europe without the UK: Liberated or diminished?
13 March 2019
In 2016 the CER made ten predictions about the effect of Brexit on future EU policy. How do they stand up now, on the eve of the UK’s departure?
Five years (is/is not)* a long time in Ukrainian politics (*Delete as applicable)
14 February 2019
It is five years since Ukraine’s then president, Viktor Yanukovych, fled the country for Russia. Since then, some commentators say a lot has changed, while others say not much. But however confused the picture, Ukraine still merits attention.
Trump's foreign policy: Two years of living dangerously
25 January 2019
President Donald Trump has given America’s traditional allies cause to worry that the US will withdraw from its global role. Those allies must now avoid precipitating what they fear most.
Putin's last term: Taking the long view
23 January 2019
Vladimir Putin has dominated the Russian political scene since 1999. But he is now in what should be his final term as president. He faces economic, social and foreign policy problems; and he has to decide what will happen at the end of his term of office.The performance of...
China and Europe: Buying hearts and minds?
29 November 2018
The EU does not need to compete financially with China’s grandiose ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI) everywhere. But it should at least stop China buying the support of EU member-states.
Is Trump right to nuke the INF Treaty?
02 November 2018
The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty is a cornerstone of European stability. The US should challenge Russian treaty violations, but not abandon the treaty without a better plan.
Moving Balkan borders: Peace plan or Pandora's box?
28 September 2018
Moving borders in the Western Balkans is risky, but might occasionally be the best option. The EU should not block a Serbia/Kosovo deal, but should work on risk mitigation.
Trump's two summits: Can NATO navigate the dangers?
04 July 2018
Donald Trump attacked his allies at the G7 summit, then embraced North Korea’s Kim. Will summits with NATO and Vladimir Putin follow the same pattern?
Plugging in the British: Completing the circuit
22 June 2018
Post-Brexit internal and external security co-operation arrangements seem as hard for the EU and UK to agree on as trade. Other third countries’ relationships with the EU provide models.
Trump and Europe: Atlantic hurricane season?
30 May 2018
Trump's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal adds further stress to the transatlantic relationship. European responses must avoid making things worse, for both sides' sake.
Has the last trump sounded for the transatlantic partnership?
04 May 2018
European leaders cannot take transatlantic partnership for granted in the Donald Trump era. They need to shore up support on both sides of the Atlantic.
No shock in Russian election: But can Europe surprise Putin?
26 March 2018
After his re-election, the West is more likely to face Putin the aggressive nationalist than Putin the economic reformer. It should respond firmly.
British foreign policy after Brexit: Hand in hand?
22 March 2018
British foreign policy priorities will change little after Brexit, but London will need to find new ways to rally EU support for them.
Plugging in the British: EU foreign policy
06 March 2018
As part of the EU, the UK has been able to leverage the resources of other member-states to support Britain’s foreign and development priorities. After Brexit, that will be harder.
The fight for liberal values: Annual report 2017
06 February 2018
The CER's annual report features essays on the creation of the CER, the CER at 20, Brexit, economics and Donald Trump's impact on geopolitics, it also highlights some of our work on foreign and defence policy.
From 14 points to 280 characters: Trump vs Wilson
22 January 2018
Woodrow Wilson's 14 points of January 1918 were the first sketch of the liberal, rules-based international order. A century later, Donald Trump risks demolishing the edifice.
Can EU funds promote the rule of law in Europe?
21 November 2017
The EU is a values-based organisation, yet it does not insist that member-states respect its values in order to receive EU funds. That should change.
Relaunching the EU
07 November 2017
The EU is ripe for fundamental reform. New policies are needed for migration and the euro. The EU also needs more flexible structures so that countries can opt in and out of key policies.
EU enlargement: Door half open or door half shut?
09 October 2017
EU enlargement has spread peace and prosperity, but it has now stalled. The EU should keep the door open, and prepare countries for coming inside.
CER podcast: EU values and interests in the age of Trump
29 September 2017
Sophia Besch talks to Ian Bond about how the European Union can protect the international liberal order, as well as its security interests, when it can no longer rely on partnership with Trump’s America.
Can the world live with North Korea's bomb?
19 September 2017
The world should stop pretending that North Korea will give up its nuclear weapons, and focus on minimising the risks of further proliferation and of accidental or deliberate conflict.
European policy in Asia: Getting past mercatorism and mercantilism
07 September 2017
Asia is a dangerous place, and closer to Europe than most Europeans think. They cannot leave Trump's America to tackle all Asia's security problems.
The EU, the Eurasian Economic Union and One Belt, One Road: Can they work together?
16 March 2017
The EU, Russia's Eurasian Economic Union and China's One Belt, One Road initiative may become rival spheres of influence. But could they complement each other instead?
Contested space: Eastern Europe between Russia and the EU
09 March 2017
The EU's Eastern Partners are caught between the West, which excludes them from its organisations, and Russia, which tries to force them into its orbit.
Russia, the West and Eastern Europe: Lenin's long shadow
26 January 2017
Russia's neighbours in Eastern Europe are dogged by their Soviet legacy. Both Russia and the West need better strategies to deal with Europe's contested spaces.
Russia and China: Partners of choice and necessity?
08 December 2016
Russia and China are not natural allies. Western policy should reflect their different interests, not drive them together. China may be the easier one to accommodate.
Does 'America First' mean EU defence at last?
22 November 2016
The election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States puts European security at risk.
Trump and Europe: The sun sets on the West
09 November 2016
Donald Trump's election will strain the transatlantic partnership. Populism in Europe and the US will threaten post-Cold War security and prosperity. Europe will need to work with Trump and to hedge against risks.
Brexit and foreign policy: Divorce?
18 July 2016
The British government must work hard to minimise the damage to its international influence from Brexit. First step: more investment in relations with European partners.
NATO, the EU and Brexit: Joining forces?
05 July 2016
NATO and the EU must work together to manage crises in Europe’s neighbourhood. The UK’s referendum vote has given them one more problem to solve.
Britain, the EU and security: Only one thing worse than fighting with allies
21 June 2016
The threats to Britain are diverse, and shared with Europe. Responses must be equally flexible and multinational. The age of splendid isolation is not coming back.
Europe after Bremain: A strong team?
10 June 2016
If Britain votes to Remain, it should not revert to old habits of obstruction. In almost every field, it can serve its own interests best by making a positive contribution.
Europe after Brexit: Unleashed or undone?
15 April 2016
If Britain left the EU, the character of the Union would change. The UK has driven economic liberalisation and foreign policy co-operation, and has made the EU's machinery more efficient.
BBC World News: EU migrant crisis
25 February 2016
Ian Bond talks to BBC World News on Europe's migrants crisis.
The refugee crisis: Fixing Schengen is not enough
17 February 2016
Europe's refugee crisis is a foreign policy crisis with domestic spill-over; it has to be solved abroad as well as at home.
The Brexit equation: EU minus UK = ?
22 January 2016
Brexit would change the EU as well as the UK. What kind of partner would a diminished EU be for Britain and the rest of the world?
Cameron's security gamble: Is Brexit a strategic risk?
21 December 2015
Britain has shown its international ambitions with airstrikes in Syria and an important defence and security review. But the referendum on EU membership threatens Britain's interests.
Millstone or multiplier? EU foreign policy
30 November 2015
EU foreign policy co-operation gives Britain a chance to persuade 27 other countries to support British aims – but success depends on the UK showing more interest.
China's European charm offensive: Silk Road or Silk Rope?
27 November 2015
China is building closer relations with European countries, offering investments to all. EU member-states should welcome China’s contribution, without abandoning European values and interests.
The insoluble Syrian problem: Only wrong answers?
29 September 2015
No-one, including Putin, has a peace plan for Syria. The EU should stop pursuing unrealistic military and political aims and focus on helping the war’s victims.
Eastern mess: The EU's partners need attention
24 September 2015
Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine signed EU association agreements in 2014, but reforms are now stalling. The EU needs to push the three governments to do more.
EU foreign policy co-operation: A millstone or a multiplier for the UK?
12 October 2015
Submission to the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Select Committee inquiry on the costs and benefits of EU membership for the UK's role in the world.
By participating actively in EU foreign policy co-operation, the UK can get 27 other countries to take co-ordinated actions aligned with British aims. It could...
By participating actively in EU foreign policy co-operation, the UK can get 27 other countries to take co-ordinated actions aligned with British aims. It could...
The EU and defence procurement
15 January 2014
Against a background of falling European defence budgets, the European Commission has sought to increase the efficiency of the European defence market by reducing barriers to intra-EU defence trade and by encouraging competition.
Frozen: The politics and economics of sanctions against Russia
16 March 2015
Western sanctions are hurting Russia more than Europe. They will remain an essential tool to prevent a strong and aggressive Russia dominating its neighbours.
The EU and Russia: Uncommon spaces
16 April 2014
The House of Lords has published a report on the EU and Russia, incorporating recommendations from this 2014 policy brief - a good guide to a troubled relationship.
Russia is challenging the EU’s values and interests, above all in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus. The Union has struggled...
Russia is challenging the EU’s values and interests, above all in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus. The Union has struggled...
The Riga Summit: Enter, pursued by a bear
18 May 2015
The future of the EU’s Eastern Partnership is uncertain. Though it is under pressure from Russian hostility and EU apathy, it can and should be saved.
Security in the age of austerity: You get what you pay for
08 April 2015
Europe’s neighbourhood is too dangerous for decisions on defence budgets to be left to austerity-minded finance ministers. The UK should set a good example.
Russia's war in Ukraine: Is Minsk the end, or just the start?
13 February 2015
Putin was the winner in Minsk. Fighting in Ukraine is paused, not finished. Ukraine must reform faster, while the West adapts to confrontation with Russia.
France 24: Road to EU renegotiation for re-elected British PM
11 May 2015
Ian Bond speaks to France 24 on how Cameron will seek to re-negotiate with the EU
Human rights and policy wrongs
31 March 2014
British politicians love to criticise the European Convention on Human Rights. A closer look would show them that they should praise it, not bury it.
Plenty of crime but no punishment for Putin
The Moscow Times
03 September 2014
It seems that President Vladimir Putin would like to go down in history as an extraordinary man, who restored Russia to greatness. Unfortunately, his intervention in Ukraine risks making him the Raskolnikov of international relations.
A year of war in Europe: The balance sheet
22 February 2023
Since Russia attacked Ukraine, the CER has tracked the war’s effect on the protagonists, the EU, NATO and other powers. What conclusions can be drawn from the past year?